3 Earnings Reports Give a Snapshot of Consumer Sentiment
Earnings season is not only an opportunity for investors to evaluate the success (or lack thereof) of individual companies in the last several months, but also a chance to get a more general reading on larger issues facing the economy. In 2025, with inflation creeping upward again and tariffs jolting the market in different directions, consumer sentiment is one of these larger issues.
How do American consumers feel as their spending gets stretched thinner amid rising prices and widespread economic uncertainty?
While using individual firms as a proxy for broader sentiment has limitations, investors may nonetheless draw insight from considering three major consumer-facing brands: McDonald's Corp. (NYSE: MCD), Shopify Inc. (NYSE: SHOP), and DoorDash Inc. (NASDAQ: DASH). In many ways, the success each of these firms experienced in the latest earnings round paints a rosy picture of consumer sentiment.
Despite this, digging deeper will reveal reasons investors should be cautious going forward.
Earnings Wins Across the Board Demonstrate Resilience
All three of the firms above noted significant earnings wins for the year's second quarter, a sign of their resilience despite volatility in some corners of the market.
Fast food titan McDonald's, for example, posted modest positive surprises in both top- and bottom-line performance as global systemwide sales climbed by 6% year-over-year (YOY), and the company remains on track to open some 2,200 new locations this year alone.
These results suggest that consumer sentiment toward affordable dining options remains strong, even as broader economic uncertainty lingers.
McDonald’s menu innovation and digital ordering initiatives appear to be resonating with customers, helping sustain brand loyalty.
If confidence in household budgets continues to improve, the company could see even stronger traffic and sales growth in the quarters ahead.
Retail giant Shopify reflects a different aspect of the consumer space.
Given that the company's clients are merchants keen to use Shopify's platform and services to market, sell, and manage their products to customers, the company is a step removed from the everyday consumer.
Still, the company's strong earnings results suggest that optimism is warranted more broadly in retail.
Shopify's revenue climbed by an impressive 31% YOY, and the company also provided similarly optimistic forward guidance.
These results indicate that merchants remain confident in consumer demand and are willing to invest in expanding their online presence. Continued growth in e-commerce adoption points to a sustained shift in shopping habits, which benefits Shopify’s long-term outlook.
If consumer sentiment holds firm, the company could see both transaction volume and merchant subscriptions accelerate further.
DoorDash similarly reported better-than-expected results on both earnings and revenue, as U.S. marketplace orders climbed YOY alongside improved delivery times and a surge in membership in the company's subscription DashPass service.
In response, shares of DASH surged to an all-time high.
Despite the higher costs to consumers associated with ordering food for delivery compared to visiting a restaurant in person, DoorDash seems to have still drawn significant interest.
This suggests that convenience remains a strong driver of consumer behavior, even in the face of cost pressures. Strong demand for services like DoorDash can indicate that consumers still feel confident in their discretionary spending.
If that confidence holds, the company may continue to see elevated order volumes and subscriber growth well into the next quarter.
Nonetheless, Reasons to Exercise Caution
Despite these wins, however, there may still be reasons for investors to exercise caution regarding consumer sentiment. First, looking at McDonald's earnings on a more granular level, while U.S. comparable sales did climb by 2.5% YOY, low-income consumer visits declined by double digits relative to the second quarter of last year.
This puts the firm in a difficult position as inflation pressures suggest raising prices. The fact that consumers at the lower end of the income spectrum have avoided McDonald's—as part of the fast food category, which has traditionally been one of the most affordable restaurants nationwide—may signal a red flag for future investors.
Additionally, Shopify's results may not paint quite as rosy a picture as they seem on an initial viewing. Despite impressive revenue growth, company executives explained that the firm's European business was the primary driver of these gains.
Further, revenue gains may have been more attributable to adding new large-scale merchants on the platform than increased customer spending.
Investors should remember that earnings reports are necessarily backward-facing, and that while they can suggest emerging or continuing trends, they do not guarantee any future performance. With several new tariffs taking effect in August and disappointing inflation results in the summer months, companies in the retail industry and the broader consumer discretionary sector could be facing an even more challenging external environment than they did in the second quarter.
The S&P 500 remains up 8% year-to-date, and plenty of analysts are bullish on each of the companies listed above. Still, the warning signs in these earnings reports may be enough to give some investors reason to hesitate as we enter the year's second half.
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