Is J.B. Hunt Stock a Sleeping Giant Heading Into 2026?
J.B. Hunt Transport Services' (NASDAQ: JBHT) stock price hit bottom earlier this year, setting it up for a significant reversal and potential gains over the next three to five years. The caveat is that it will take time for this shipping giant to regain traction and shift into a more bullish gear.
The FQ2 2025 earnings were better than expected, and guidance was optimistic; however, risks remain, including those to capital return.
The takeaway for investors is that this transportation stock has set its bottom and is unlikely to reach new lows; however, it will likely remain range-bound in 2025, potentially retesting support at lower levels than where it trades in mid-July, creating a more attractive entry point.
The risk to the capital return is significant. While the dividend is safe, the buybacks are not. The company’s Q2 income and free cash flow were insufficient to cover the total CAPEX, dividend, and buybacks, resulting in increased debt compared to the prior year's quarter and year-end.
With only $355 million left on the current authorization, the risk is that share repurchases could slow or cease within the next quarter or two, depriving the market of much-needed support until business picks back up.
The dividend is reliably safe at less than 30% of the earnings outlook and is still expected to increase annually. The company may slow the pace of dividend distribution increase, but it is unlikely to give up its 20-year history of consecutive increases easily.
JBHT’s Diversified Business Shows Strengths and Weaknesses in Q2
J.B. Hunt’s Q2 was neither bad nor good, with revenue of $2.93 billion, remaining flat compared to the previous year. The result is driven by strengths in most segments, offset by weaknesses in the same. The strengths include a 6% increase in Intermodal loads and Integrated Capacity Solutions revenue per load, a 3% productivity improvement in the Dedicated Capacity Solutions segment, and a 13% increase in JBT loads.
Weaknesses include a 10% decline in Final Mile Services, a 9% decrease in ICS volume, a 3% reduction in DCS trucks, and a decrease in revenue per load in the JBI and JBT segments.
Margin is the worst of the news. The company’s focus on efficiency and cost reductions is helping, but it has not fully offset the impacts of inflation. Inflation mainly affects wages, compensation, and insurance costs, which have slightly reduced profit margins.
The net result is $197.3 million in operating income, a 4% reduction, and plans to reduce costs by an additional $100 million annually. The company didn’t give specific guidance, but remains optimistic; the outlook for wage and insurance costs is for them to continue rising.
J.B. Hunt’s Share Buybacks Come at a Cost
J.B. Hunt’s share buybacks set a quarterly record in FQ2 2025, resulting in a 5% average quarterly reduction. The bad news is that buybacks are reflected in the balance sheet with liabilities rising and assets and equity falling. Equity fell by nearly 10% YTD in 2025 and will likely continue eroding until growth is reinvigorated, buybacks or not.
The post-release price action isn’t encouraging. The market fell by 1% in pre-market action following losses in the prior session that confirmed resistance at a critical level. The analysts were optimistic ahead of the release, issuing several price target increases that led to a high-end range; however, they may not continue this trend now.
A series of price target reductions would put a firm cap on this market, ensuring a move lower in the third quarter. Until then, JBHT is rated as a Moderate Buy with potential for roughly 8% upside.
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