Qualcomm Earnings Surprise Wall Street—Here’s What Q4 Could Deliver
Tech titan Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) delivered a strong fiscal Q4 report after Wednesday’s close, reaffirming that the company’s transformation, which we’ve been highlighting recently, is taking hold. Non-GAAP EPS and revenue both comfortably exceeded estimates, with revenue increasing by more than 10% year over year.
Management’s forward guidance also beat expectations, suggesting there should be enough fundamental momentum to keep powering the stock’s uptrend into 2026.
It will be interesting to see how the market reacts on Thursday, as shares still dipped about 1% in the after-hours session despite the solid print on Wednesday evening. Perhaps Qualcomm’s investors were cautious after the 50% run-up since April, which isn't something they’re used to.
For a stock that has frustrated even the more patient investors in recent years, the test right now is whether it can capitalize on the tailwinds that are starting to align. Let’s jump in and see what these are as we head into the final few weeks of Q4.
QCOM Fundamentals Are Looking Strong
As a starting point, it is worth noting that, as in every quarterly report over the past few years, Qualcomm has consistently topped analyst expectations. Revenue increased year-over-year, margins expanded, EPS exceeded expectations, and guidance was strong.
On the latter point, management is now working towards a record revenue print in its next report, something that should get Wall Street excited. Handset sales remain the foundation, while diversification is starting to show up in the numbers. Automotive and IoT together account for a growing share of profits, reducing Qualcomm’s exposure to smartphone cycles.
In short, Qualcomm’s growth is broad, and pretty much every indicator is pointing in the right direction.
Diversification Story Gaining Credibility
Management used the call to outline a long-term roadmap targeting $22 billion in combined automotive and IoT revenue by 2029, indicating they expect strong, consistent growth in the intervening years. Qualcomm’s automotive business is gaining critical mass, with partnerships kicking off with many of the industry's biggest names.
Its IoT devices are another dependable growth driver, while Qualcomm chips now power an expanding set of industrial and consumer devices tied to AI and connected infrastructure. Last month’s announcement that they’re starting to compete more directly with the likes of NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) is testament to this. While still comparatively small, for now, it means Qualcomm has a foothold in the wave of AI-driven demand.
Consistent Analyst Support
Up until recently, Qualcomm had been building a reputation for consistently underwhelming investors with lackluster share performance, despite several apparent emerging tailwinds. But the stock’s price action in recent weeks, and Wednesday’s quarterly earnings, may have finally flipped that narrative.
The team at JPMorgan Chase had already reiterated its Buy rating on the stock this week, boosting its price target to $210, implying around 16% upside from current levels. The move echoed that of Rosenblatt Securities, which had given the stock a $225 price target in late October.
There’s a sense that Qualcomm’s many tailwinds, and its comparatively low P/E ratio of just 20, are just too potent a combination for the stock to do anything but continue to gain from here.
Broader macro conditions support this likelihood. The semiconductor sector has re-entered a risk-on phase as investors rotate back into lagging AI names, with the major indices at or just below all-time highs.
Technically, the setup also looks constructive. Even with the recent pop, the stock’s RSI reading is only at 58, meaning it has a ton of room to run before it could be called overbought. Qualcomm’s MACD reading is also trending positively, confirming that the bulls remain in control.
Main Risk Is Self-Belief
As always with Qualcomm, however, investor confidence remains the critical variable. Wall Street wants to see not just consistent quarter-to-quarter results, but also a share price that behaves more like a tech stock than a cyclical one.
Remember, Qualcomm is still trading back at 2021 levels while we’re in the midst of a phenomenal bull run. Many companies would give anything to trade places with Qualcomm, and the stock needs to start realizing this.
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