Ryan Hasson | Published October 09, 2025

Rocket Lab: A Space Giant Hitting New Highs—Time to Chase?

Rocket Lab USA (NASDAQ: RKLB) has gone from strength to strength over the past year, cementing its position as one of the most dominant players in the space launch and infrastructure industry, second only to SpaceX. The company’s stock has been on an absolute tear, surging 141% year-to-date and nearly 560% over the past 12 months, a staggering return that has turned early believers into big winners.

After months of consolidation between $40 and $55, Rocket Lab finally broke out last week, soaring nearly 30% in a matter of days to hit a new all-time high of $62.56 on Oct. 7, 2025. The breakout marked a decisive technical shift for the stock. But with its Relative Strength Index (RSI) now sitting at 71, entering overbought territory, investors might be asking the question: Is it still a buy here, or is a pullback more likely before the next leg higher?

Momentum Continues to Build

While excitement for Neutron, the company’s next-generation rocket, remains the long-term catalyst, recent momentum has come from Rocket Lab’s breadwinner: Electron. The workhorse rocket continues to deliver operational success, signing back-to-back launch deals that reaffirm its growing dominance in the small-lift market.

Last week, Rocket Lab announced a significant milestone with Synspective, a Japanese leader in Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite data. The deal includes 10 dedicated Electron launches, expanding Synspective’s total commitments to 21. The most significant single order of dedicated Electron missions by any customer to date.

Then, on Tuesday, Oct. 7, Rocket Lab revealed another multi-launch contract, this time with Japan-based iQPS. The new agreement covers three dedicated Electron missions, bringing iQPS’s total upcoming launches with Rocket Lab to seven. Combined, these deals underscore Rocket Lab’s expanding international footprint and the reliability of Electron as a commercial launch vehicle.

Electron’s consistent performance has built a solid revenue and backlog foundation, one that gives the company flexibility to pursue ambitious projects like Neutron while maintaining strong near-term business momentum.

Neutron: The Long-Term Game Changer

While Electron drives the business today, Neutron is the story that could define Rocket Lab’s future. Targeted for a maiden launch in late 2025, Neutron will mark Rocket Lab’s entry into the medium-lift category, a direct challenge to SpaceX’s Falcon 9.

Progress has been steady and promising. Launch Complex 3 at Wallops Island, Virginia, is fully operational, and the rocket’s second stage has passed key qualification milestones. Neutron’s design focuses on reusability, cost efficiency, and rapid turnaround, qualities that could give Rocket Lab a competitive edge in an industry where affordability and reliability are paramount.

Much of the current momentum in RKLB may already be pricing in optimism for Neutron’s development. If the rocket delivers on expectations, it could fundamentally transform the company’s earnings profile and push it into an entirely new growth phase.

Not a Time to Chase, But Plenty to Be Excited About

There’s no question Rocket Lab is firing on all cylinders. The company’s execution on both Electron and Neutron, combined with record-breaking contract wins, has solidified its position as a true contender in the space industry. However, from a technical and valuation standpoint, the stock looks due for a breather.

With its RSI above 70, Rocket Lab is now in overbought territory, a level that often precedes short-term cooling or consolidation. Analysts currently rate the stock as a Moderate Buy, but their consensus price target of $42.47 implies notable downside from current levels. That doesn’t necessarily mean the stock is headed lower in the long term; it simply suggests that near-term enthusiasm may have outpaced fundamentals.

For investors looking to build a long-term position, patience may be rewarded. A pullback toward the prior breakout zone near $55 could offer a stronger risk-reward entry, especially if that level holds as new support.