Traders Are Piling Into Suncor Call Options—Should You?
Tariffs are supposed to temper margins and earnings prospects outside the United States. With the energy sector significantly compressed by low crude oil prices, this double headwind doesn’t bode well for stocks exposed to this space, especially overseas companies. However, this environment can create an investment opportunity in stocks that are less dependent on U.S. imports.
One of these names is Canadian Energy player Suncor Energy Inc. (NYSE: SU). While most of its peers are trading well below their peaks, this company has managed to rise and hover around 95% of its 52-week highs, signaling strong investor conviction backed by a sound financial foundation.
Recently, call option traders have piled into Suncor, betting on an extended bull run. Given the inherent leverage and expiration risk in options, such aggressive positioning suggests high confidence in the company’s near-term potential.
Suncor’s Tariff Exposure Is Smaller Than Expected
According to Suncor CEO Rich Kruger, Canada exports a significant portion of its oil to the United States, roughly 60% to 65% of Suncor’s barrels stay within Canada or are exported elsewhere. This means the majority of revenue is protected from U.S.-Canada tariff-related disruptions to earnings per share (EPS).
Here is a double tailwind investors can dig into: Suncor’s latest quarterly earnings release shows capital expenditures are down. At the same time, production numbers rose, and volumes are still expected to continue expanding through the fourth quarter of 2025. With less spending, all this extra cash has to go somewhere other than remain liquid.
This is typically when management decides to boost shareholder benefit programs, such as dividend payout hikes or stock buybacks, to enhance the company’s valuation and create a stronger EPS tailwind for future quarters. Keeping that into account, there is only one more piece to the puzzle and its the match around the dynamite factory.
Ready for the Macro Tailwind
As the Federal Reserve (the Fed) cuts interest rates in the United States, other governments in developed nations may follow suit. A broader accommodative policy shift could trigger more industrial and business activity, which is often tied to oil demand.
A rise in the price of oil could send Suncor’s earnings much higher in this scenario, making it an even hotter stock to hold, especially when investors realize the tariff exposure is not as severe as that of different companies.
This can explain why 28,315 call options were purchased in October 2025, a 2,998% increase compared to the typical options volume of just 914. This is a huge conviction in the background, now justified by the fundamental setup this company offers. But that’s not all.
Analysts See Nearly 60% Upside
Analysts are catching up to this theme, as the current consensus price target remains set at $65, implying a 57.5% upside potential from the stock's current trading price.
The MarketBeat consensus shows Suncor delivering $1.00 in EPS for the third quarter of 2025, a near 100% jump from today’s reported 51 cents. This is enough growth to justify a stock trading at a new 52-week high. Even then, the stock remains deeply undervalued compared to its peers, who may not have as strong a fundamental setup.
While the energy sector trades at an average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 76.5x, Suncor commands a 12.7x multiple, showing a steep discount. It is unlikely that many stocks in the sector are set up to deliver 100% EPS growth, so there is a fundamental disconnect between Suncor’s future and how the market values it today.
The gap? Likely driven by worries over tariff exposure—which, as we now know, are far less impactful for Suncor than once feared.
With reduced spending, rising output, minimal tariff risk, and potential for accelerated shareholder returns, Suncor might be one of the few energy stocks ready to run while the rest of the market is still catching up.
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