Uber Stock Pullback Looks Like a Clear Buying Opportunity
Uber Technologies' (NYSE: UBER) price pullbacks create buying opportunities because this well-run innovator is firing on all cylinders.
Its core business is growing while expanding into new markets, deepening client penetration and profiting.
The profits are a critical component of the investment thesis as they enable aggressive share buybacks alongside business reinvestment and equity gains.
Although the Q3 release provided a reason for the market to pull back, it was, ultimately, a knee-jerk reaction to news that will soon be forgotten. The uptrend will continue.
Uber Technologies' Guidance Fell Short of the Consensus
The worst that can be said of Uber Technologies' Q4 guidance is that the midpoint for revenue growth is slightly short of MarketBeat’s reported consensus. While a negative regarding market sentiment and stock price direction, the miss is slim and offset by numerous factors. Among them are the high bar set by tech sector analysts and the high likelihood of caution.
The Q3 results were much stronger than anticipated, including 20.5% year-over-year revenue growth and margin expansion, driven by a 17% increase in the user base and a 4% increase in trips per user. Trip volume increased by 22% and gross bookings by 21%, with segmental strength in Delivery and Mobility, up 20% and 29%, respectively, and is likely to remain strong in Q4.
The margin news is mixed. Adjusted EBITDA expanded at an accelerated 33% pace but was offset by increased spending, research, and costs. The net result is that income from operations, cash flow, and free cash flow grew at slower, single-digit paces, but growth is present. The critical detail is that the margin compression was far less than expected, with GAAP earnings approximately 75% above MarketBeat’s consensus estimate, and also expected to remain robust in Q4. The guidance forecasts an adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 50 basis points.
Uber is Building Leverage With Its Cash Flow in 2025
Uber’s cash flow situation is central to its stock price outlook, as it has allowed for balance sheet improvements and share buybacks after years of losses and dilution. The balance sheet highlights reflect aggressive cash use, with cash, current, and total assets down at the end of Q3, but the impacts are bullish for the stock price. The liabilities, including long-term debt, are also falling, as is the share count, which decreased 1.4% on average during the quarter. The aggressive pace is likely to continue in future quarters and may accelerate.
Analysts and institutional trends reveal these groups are on board with Uber’s growth trajectory and capital return outlook. The 39 analysts tracked by MarketBeat rate the stock as a Moderate Buy, with a bullish bias to the rating, as most are pegged at Buy or equivalent. The price target details are favorable. They reveal an uptrend in revisions, a 15% upside forecast at the consensus, and an increasing expectation that this market will move into the high-end range, potentially as high as $140 by early 2026. Institutions are likewise bullish, owning 80% of the stock and buying on balance every quarter in 2025.
Uber Sell-Off Triggers Buy-the-Dip Frenzy in Stock Price Action
Uber’s tepid guidance triggered a nearly 10% stock price decline, which in turn triggered a buy-the-dip frenzy. The price action quickly bottomed and reversed, forming a green candle with notably high trading volume. The takeaway is that support is confirmed at the 30-day EMA, indicating a trend-following entry signal with potential for gains of 7% to 10% in the near term and significantly larger increases over the mid- to long-term. The critical support target is near $90 and is unlikely to be broken. The crucial resistance targets are near $96 and $100 and will likely be retested before year-end.
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