History says 6,900%+. The fuse is July 9th. (From Behind the Markets)

Crude oil prices have fallen sharply following the June 14-15 announcement that the United States and Iran have reached a framework agreement to end their conflict. The deal, which is in the form of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), is expected to be formally signed on June 19 in Switzerland.

The MOU extends the existing ceasefire for 60 days and sets the stage for broader nuclear negotiations. But for oil markets, the immediate catalyst is clear: the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters to Global Markets

The strait has been effectively closed since shortly after the war began on February 28, choking off roughly 20% of the world's oil supply. President Trump has authorized its reopening, but the Strait won't officially reopen until after Friday's signing.

At the time of this writing, the formal signing has not yet taken place, and the details of the final agreement are not fully clear. There's also a chance there won't be any signing on Friday. That could quickly reverse the oil trade. In that case, investors can simply buy energy stocks that have performed well over the last three months.

If the deal is signed and oil prices continue to fall, investors may want to look beyond traditional energy producers. Airlines and logistics companies could benefit from lower fuel costs, while integrated oil majors may offer a more balanced way to stay exposed to long-term energy demand.

Lower Fuel Costs Could Lift Delta Back to All-Time Highs

Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) is an obvious winner from lower oil prices. Airline stocks are tough buys in good economies; they can be a nightmare amidst higher jet fuel costs.

To be fair, Delta is better positioned than many airlines to weather higher fuel costs. Specifically, Delta owns the Trainer oil refinery outside Philadelphia. When jet fuel prices spike, the refinery generates offsetting profit. It's an unconventional hedge, but it's proven effective.

Also, higher-income seniors continue to travel, which was reflected in Delta’s Q1 2026 earnings report. The company reported strong demand momentum both in that quarter and in its forward guidance.

Interestingly, DAL is up more than 20% in 2026, including up nearly 38% in the three months ending June 15. That means Delta’s stock has continued to move higher as oil stocks have charged higher.

As of this writing, DAL is trading above its consensus price target of $80.85. However, markets are forward-looking, and Morgan Stanley raised its price target on DAL to $105 from $90 on June 1.

FedEx Has Multiple Catalysts Beyond Falling Oil Prices

FedEx Corp. (NYSE: FDX) isn't an airline, but fuel costs are the company's second-largest operating expense. Lower diesel and jet fuel prices drop directly to the bottom line.

High oil prices hurt FedEx in two ways. They inflate operating costs, and they slow the consumer spending that drives package volume. A peace deal that brings oil prices down addresses both problems at once.

FedEx is also in the middle of a significant internal transformation. Its Network 2.0 initiative is merging its Express and Ground delivery networks. The goal is more than $1 billion in annual cost savings. Lower fuel costs layered on top of that cost-cutting could make for a compelling setup heading into the company's next earnings report.

Skeptics will note that Barclays lowered its price target on FDX to $425 from $450. However, the revised target remains well above the recent share price and the broader analyst consensus, suggesting the firm still sees meaningful upside despite a more cautious outlook.

Chevron Offers a Balanced Energy Market Play

Even oil stocks weren’t exempt from the impact of higher oil prices. That’s the case with Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX). The company’s stock is down over 8% in the last three months, primarily due to a weaker-than-expected earnings report in which the company reported a headwind from the March spike in oil prices.

That might seem counterintuitive. But Chevron is an integrated energy company. Its upstream business produces oil; its downstream business refines it. When crude spikes suddenly, refining margins often compress. That's what hit earnings in Q1.

A moderate decline in oil prices could actually improve Chevron's overall profitability. Lower input costs tend to widen refining margins. Meanwhile, the company's upstream production keeps generating revenue at still-elevated price levels.

But CVX is still up approximately 18% in 2026 and is trading about 14% below its consensus price target of $205.70. For investors who want energy exposure with a built-in buffer against price volatility, Chevron's integrated structure makes it a more balanced bet than a pure-play producer.

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