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Key Points

• Several major airlines, including Delta, American, Allegiant, and JetBlue, have raised first-quarter revenue guidance, citing stronger-than-expected travel demand even as fuel costs surge and geopolitical tensions disrupt the industry.
• Despite recent pressure on airline stocks from rising oil prices, winter travel disruptions, and weak consumer sentiment, analysts’ 12-month price targets still suggest meaningful upside for many carriers, with Delta, American, and Allegiant all expected to gain more than 20%.
• With travel demand holding up and airlines boosting outlooks, the recent pullback in airline stocks could present an opportunity for investors, though higher fuel costs and economic uncertainty may keep the sector volatile in the near term.
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Airlines have faced plenty of headwinds lately, but consumer demand doesn’t appear to be one of them. 

On Tuesday, Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL), American Airlines Group (NASDAQ: AAL), Allegiant Travel Co. (NASDAQ: ALGT), and JetBlue Airways Corp. (NASDAQ: JBLU) raised their first-quarter revenue outlooks, all citing stronger-than-expected travel demand. The upbeat guidance may come as a surprise, as it hasn’t exactly been smooth flying for the airline industry in recent months. 

Airline stocks have been under pressure as oil prices have surged amid tensions in the Middle East, driving up jet fuel costs. Carriers have also faced flight disruptions tied to the conflict, winter storms that caused widespread cancellations, rising airfares, and weak consumer sentiment, particularly among more budget-conscious travelers. In addition, the partial government shutdown has affected TSA staffing and airport operations, leading to long security lines at many U.S. airports.

Those challenges have weighed on airline stocks in recent weeks, with most major carriers trading lower over the past month. Despite these pressures, however, the latest guidance suggests travelers have not been deterred from flying. So, does that mean clear skies ahead for the airlines? Not necessarily. Analysts are mixed on individual airline stocks, but most 12-month price targets still point to solid upside, suggesting Wall Street believes strong demand could help offset rising fuel costs. 

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Delta Sees Broad-Based Demand Strength

In a presentation released ahead of a JPMorgan Industrials Conference on Tuesday, Delta raised its revenue guidance, citing broad-based demand momentum among domestic and international travelers across both its leisure and corporate segments. The airline also pointed to stronger-than-expected growth in Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) revenue, which is running ahead of earlier projections.

In an interview with CNBC, Delta Chief Executive Ed Bastian said demand strength has been “really, really great,” noting that eight of the ten best sales days in the airline’s history have occurred over the past quarter.

Delta now expects first-quarter revenue to rise in the high single digits, compared with its earlier forecast of 5% to 7% growth.

Bastian said the stronger revenue outlook is helping offset the recent surge in fuel prices, which created roughly a $400 million headwind for the airline. The higher demand is also helping make up for lost capacity caused by major winter storms.

As a result, Delta continues to expect first-quarter earnings of between 50 cents and 90 cents per share.

Analysts remain bullish on Delta stock, with 22 Buy ratings and just two Sell ratings. Although some price targets have been trimmed in recent weeks amid the heightened Middle East tensions, the average 12-month target of just under $79 implies more than 20% upside from the current price of about $64.50.

Shares are down roughly 4% over the past month, outperforming the airline industry, which has fallen about 18%. Over the past year, however, Delta shares have gained around 35%, compared with roughly 13% for the industry.

American Airlines Signals Record Revenue Growth

American Airlines offered a similar outlook as Delta, reinforcing the view that strong travel demand remains intact across the industry. In an SEC filing issued Tuesday, the airline said it now expects first-quarter total revenue to rise more than 10%, which would represent its highest-ever year-over-year quarterly revenue growth.

American said it expects jet fuel to average about $2.75 per gallon in the first quarter.

Because of higher fuel costs, the airline anticipates an adjusted loss per diluted share toward the lower end of its prior guidance range of 10 cents to 50 cents per share.

Analysts have been more cautious on American Airlines stock, with the consensus rating at Hold. However, the average 12-month price target of around $15.50 implies more than 40% upside from the current price near $11.

Shares are down around 18% over the past month and around 5% for the year, underperforming the industry over both periods.

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Allegiant Expects Record Quarter Despite Higher Fuel Costs

Allegiant Travel also added to optimism around the airline sector ahead of Tuesday’s JPMorgan conference, announcing in an SEC filing that it expects record first-quarter revenue despite a 5.5% decline in system capacity from the prior year.

The airline, which focuses on low-cost leisure travelers, raised its adjusted earnings guidance to $3.25 to $3.75 per share, up from its previous range of $2.50 to $3.50 per share.

It also lifted its adjusted operating margin expectations to 13.5% to 14.5%, up from prior guidance of 12% to 15%.

The stronger revenue outlook is expected to offset higher fuel costs, which the company now expects to be about $3 per gallon, above its prior estimate of $2.60.

Given the uncertainty around fuel prices, Allegiant left its full-year outlook unchanged.

Analysts are mixed on Allegiant stock, with six Buy ratings, six Hold ratings, and one Sell rating. The average 12-month price target of around $99 implies more than 25% upside from the current price. While the stock has fallen about 24% over the past month, it has still gained more than 40% over the past year.

JetBlue Raises Outlook, But Wall Street Remains Cautious

JetBlue also raised its guidance in an SEC filing on Tuesday, citing better-than-expected demand across both peak and off-peak travel periods, including strength in both premium and core cabin segments.

The airline said stronger revenue trends are helping offset higher jet fuel costs, which it now expects to be between $3.01 and $3.06 per gallon during the quarter, compared with its previous forecast of $2.27 to $2.42.

JetBlue raised its outlook for operating revenue per available seat mile to a range of 5% to 7%, up from prior guidance of flat to 4%. Analysts remain cautious on JetBlue, with the consensus rating at Reduce. The average 12-month price target of just under $5 still implies roughly 25% upside from the current price. Shares have fallen about 29% over the past month and are down over 25% for the year.

With travel demand holding up despite rising costs, the recent pullback in airline stocks may present opportunities. Still, investors may need to be selective, as analysts have mixed views on individual carriers, and fuel prices and macro uncertainty are likely to keep the sector volatile.

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