Early The Safest Investment Right Now? (It’s NOT Gold) (From Weiss Ratings)

Key Points

• Gold prices spiked and then dipped early in the Iran war, and continued volatility may give investors an opportunity to enter after the sustained rally over the past several quarters.
• GLD and GLDM are accessible, easy-to-use options allowing investors to adapt to fast-changing news with quick trades without running the risk of contango for futures investors.
• GDX could have an advantage because of the momentum of gold mining companies, which may be able to outperform gold when they experience strong fundamental success.
• Special Report: These guys act like this is big news… I called it (From Golden Portfolio)

 

Nearly two weeks in, the ongoing war in Iran offers investors some confusing signals that may make it tough to predict how different assets and asset classes might respond. Airline stocks, unsurprisingly, have taken a tumble, but other industries have been less dramatically affected. The whole S&P 500 has only dropped by 2.3% in the last month, a modest decline given high levels of geopolitical uncertainty.

Volatile environments often lead investors to fall back on gold, but with prices of the metal up nearly 80% in the last year, it's unclear how much upside potential there is for the traditional safe-haven asset. On the other hand, the market shock from the start of the war did cause a brief—though modest—spike above $5,300 per ounce, and gold has subsequently fallen about 2% in recent days.

If the dollar declines as a result of the war, pushing gold in the opposite direction, investors may have a narrow window in which to buy at a marginally reduced price. Perhaps more likely, broad volatility across all corners of the market may open up opportunities to buy gold or gold stocks during short-lived dips for those who are watching closely. Alternatively, investors might try the following plays on gold during the war in the Middle East.

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GLD Remains a Straightforward, Accessible Play For All Investors

Gold futures and bullion have advantages for investors looking for leverage or pure hedges, but a trader anticipating volatility related to the war to last for weeks or months may be looking for something liquid and accessible. It's hard to do better than the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEARCA: GLD), the largest and most popular gold-based exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the world.

The fund closely tracks the spot price of gold because its holdings are just that—physical bullion stored in vaults. Because it trades like a stock, investors can buy and sell the fund quickly during market hours to respond in real time to developments.

It also has the benefit over gold futures of eliminating concerns about contango, where futures prices are higher the further out the contract expires, which is a real possibility given the historical rally and recent volatility.

One consideration for investors considering GLD is that it is not the cheapest physically backed gold ETF, with an expense ratio of 0.4%. There may be alternatives where investors can accept lower assets under management (AUM), trading volume, or different bullion storage arrangements for a slightly lower fee.

Momentum For Gold Mining Companies, But Oil Cost Concerns Could Impede GDX Performance

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA: GDX), holding a portfolio of gold mining companies rather than gold itself, may appeal because of the potential for improvements in operational leverage should the price of gold continue to rise during the war.

Many gold mining companies have come off exceptional quarters in 2025 thanks to the dramatic rally, which assisted in bolstering balance sheets and driving dividend growth (GDX itself provides a dividend yield of 0.61%.) GDX holds about 50 mining stocks, boosting diversification beyond what most investors would target on their own.

Interestingly, though, GDX shares have fallen by more than 4% in early March, a decently sized underperformance relative to the spot price of gold over the same period.

This deviation from the price of gold itself may be due to concerns about rising oil prices. Surging oil prices mean that gold miners will have to spend more just to keep production up, cutting into margins. GDX may be strongest if gold prices rise while oil prices remain unchanged or rise only marginally.

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GLDM Provides a Cheaper Alternative to GLD, Though Limitations Remain

If the strategy of GLD appeals but its cost is prohibitively high (or investors are concerned about underperformance compared to cheaper rivals for that reason), the SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (NYSEARCA: GLDM) may be a suitable alternative.

A smaller physical gold-focused fund—not only in terms of AUM and trading volumes, but also with a per-share price that is lower, improving accessibility for retail investors—GLDM also has an expense ratio just a quarter of its sibling's.

Investors seeking the most liquid physical gold fund will probably want to stick with GLD, but GLDM can actually outperform for those buying and holding, thanks to its lower fee.

Of course, GLDM also offers no leverage, as is the case with gold mining firms like GDX (which can outperform gold itself when miner profits surge), so it may come down to individual strategy and preference.

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