This makes me furious (From The Oxford Club)

Key Points

• Its tempting to try to catch a falling knife, and there are have been plenty of stocks that rebounded after a 50% or 60% decline.
• However, most stocks that drop precipitously do so for a reason, and attempting to catch them only results in more losses.
• These three stocks all have brand recognition and past successes, but their recent earnings reports point to more downside ahead.
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Trying to catch a falling knife can be tempting, especially if it’s a company you know well. Many of the biggest winners over the last 20 years have suffered drawdowns of 40%, 50%, or even 60% over extended periods, only to roar back to new all-time highs a few months or years later.

But those are the stories we remember; it’s easy to forget the formerly strong companies that suffered major drawdowns and never recovered. Yes, we’re looking at you, AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (NYSE: AMC). Today, we’ll look at three companies fitting into the latter category: falling knives facing serious headwinds that you don’t want to attempt to catch.

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PayPal Holdings: Branded Checkout Bust Adds to Market Share Losses

It’s hard to believe a company as ubiquitous as PayPal Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: PYPL) could be facing such an existential crisis. Just 10 years ago, everyone was using the company’s apps to send payments, and Venmo was on its way to becoming a verb.

But now it feels like PayPal and its peer-to-peer payment app, Venmo, have been reduced to little more than ways to pay fantasy football dues or split restaurant checks without upsetting the server. Point-of-sale apps like Apple Pay and Google Pay are rapidly eroding PayPal’s market share, and we saw more evidence of this in the company’s earnings earlier this month.

PayPal reported its Q4 2025 results on Feb. 3 and missed both the top- and bottom-line estimates, despite 4% year-over-year (YOY) revenue growth.

Both Venmo and Buy Now Pay Later divisions grew revenue by 20%, but PayPal's branded online checkout flopped in 2025, with only 1% YOY growth compared to 6% in the same period last year. The company also made a sudden change in its CEO, replacing Alex Chriss with Enrique Lores. 

PYPL shares plummeted more than 20% following the disappointing earnings release, adding to what’s now an 85% drawdown over the last five years. The technical trends aren’t promising either; the stock has failed to breach the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) since last July, and now trades well below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Despite spending nearly the entire month in oversold territory on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the stock failed to bounce, suggesting more pain ahead for PayPal.

Genuine Parts Co.: Massive Earnings Miss Compounds Financial Troubles

Genuine Parts Company (NYSE: GPC) is still dealing with the aftereffects of multiple financial headwinds, including the bankruptcy of its key vendor, First Brands Group.

But the First Brands debacle isn’t the only negative on the company’s balance sheet, and a disastrous earnings report on Feb. 17 showed there’s more trouble ahead for the auto parts supplier.

The company’s Q4 2025 earnings revealed not just EPS and revenue misses, but also significant pretax charges: $150 million from First Brands, plus an additional $742 million in a pension settlement.

And there was no blaming the earnings miss on these one-time charges, as operating margins turned negative after growing 3.3% in the same quarter last year.

GPC shares fell nearly 15% following earnings and continued to decline in the subsequent sessions. The stock erased all its 2026 gains in a matter of hours, and the losses took the share price below the 50-day and 200-day SMAs. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has also turned bearish, and Genuine Parts will likely need to show evidence of a turnaround before this stock gets going again.

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Vulcan Materials Company: In Search of a Housing Revival

Vulcan Materials Co. (NYSE: VMC) released an earnings report this week that didn’t exactly scream "live long and prosper."

Despite the overall industrials sector showing significant strength in 2026, Vulcan Materials is still lagging due to a sleepy housing market, especially in the single-family construction space, where the company sells materials like gravel, sand, and crushed stone. The stock is still up 5% year-to-date (YTD), but the company’s Q4 2025 earnings report painted a dismal picture.

Vulcan reported EPS of $1.70, versus an expected $2.11, a nearly 20% miss that shocked analysts and investors. Revenue also missed ($1.91 billion versus the expected $1.95 billion), and the company offered tepid guidance with 1-3% growth in aggregate shipments.

As single-family housing remains sluggish, the company increasingly depends on data center construction, which uses lower-grade materials than houses, for revenue.

The earnings miss caused a 10% drop in the stock, although it finished the day down less than 8%. But the recovery was halted at a key technical level: the 50-day SMA. If the 50-day SMA now becomes an area of resistance rather than support, it likely signals further downside. And unfortunately for VMC investors, the MACD appears to confirm this signal with a bearish crossover.

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