Blink and you missed it: share price just moved (From RAD Intel)

Investors entering 2026 are facing a complex investment landscape. Western markets are currently grappling with a mix of political uncertainty and policy shifts that have introduced significant volatility to portfolios heavily concentrated in U.S. equities. As capital seeks shelter from these headwinds, a distinct rotation is occurring. Money is moving toward markets that offer a rare combination of political stability, accelerating economic output, and controlled prices.

India has emerged as the primary destination for this safety trade. The South Asian giant has entered what economists call a Goldilocks phase, an economic environment where growth is high enough to drive corporate profits, but inflation is low enough to allow the central bank to support the economy. For investors looking to hedge against domestic risks, Indian equities offer a data-backed alternative.

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A Goldilocks Scenario: Why the Numbers Favor India

The bullish argument for India is grounded in hard economic metrics that currently diverge sharply from the developed world.

The most compelling statistic for January 2026 is the inflation rate. India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 came in at just 1.33%. This is significantly below the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) medium-term target of 4%. Low inflation is critical for investors because it preserves purchasing power and allows businesses to maintain healthy profit margins without passing soaring costs onto consumers.

Simultaneously, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and OECD project India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to grow by approximately 6.7% for Fiscal Year 2026. This creates a powerful spread: the economy is expanding rapidly, yet prices remain stable.

This stability has enabled the central bank to take action. The Reserve Bank of India recently cut the repo rate, the key interest rate at which it lends money to banks, to 5.25%.

In the market, interest rate cuts are generally viewed as a positive catalyst. Lower rates reduce borrowing costs for corporations, encouraging expansion and capital expenditure. When a central bank cuts rates in a growing economy, it often acts as rocket fuel for equity prices, distinct from rate cuts in the West, which are often used to stave off recession.

The Broad Strategy: How to Play the Trend

For U.S.-based investors, a direct play to access this macroeconomic story is through the iShares MSCI India ETF (BATS: INDA). This fund tracks the MSCI India Index, providing exposure to large and mid-sized companies across the subcontinent.

While INDA is a broad basket of stocks, its performance is heavily tied to the financial sector. Banks and financial institutions make up approximately 30% of the fund’s assets.

This composition aligns perfectly with the current economic setup. When an economy grows at 6.7% and interest rates fall, banks typically see an increase in loan demand. Businesses borrow to build factories, and consumers borrow to buy homes.

Additionally, the ETF is benefiting from the China Plus One strategy.

As global manufacturers diversify their supply chains away from China to mitigate geopolitical risk, foreign direct investment is flowing into India. This structural shift provides a long-term floor for the ETF’s price, independent of short-term market noise.

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The Engine Room: HDFC Bank’s Return to Growth

To understand the potential of the Indian market, investors might analyze its most critical holding: HDFC Bank Limited (NYSE: HDB). As the largest holding in the INDA ETF, accounting for over 8% of the fund, HDFC Bank is the engine of the broader index. If HDFC stock remains stagnant, it is mathematically challenging for the ETF to rally.

Data from the bank’s most recent earnings report and business update, released in early January, indicates that the banking giant has successfully pivoted back to an aggressive growth phase.

• Loan Growth: The bank reported a 13% year-over-year (YOY) increase. This return to double-digit lending expansion signals that the integration issues from its previous merger are largely resolved.
• Deposit Growth: Deposits rose by 11.5% YOY. This is a vital metric because a bank needs a steady stream of low-cost deposits to fund its loans profitably.

 

Perhaps the most important metric for risk-conscious investors is the Credit-Deposit (CD) Ratio. A ratio over 100% implies a bank is lending out more money than it has in deposits, which can be risky during liquidity crunches.

Following its massive 2023 merger, HDFC Bank’s CD ratio spiked to uncomfortable levels of around 110%. However, the most recent data shows this metric has normalized to 98.5%, and HDFC has publicly stated its goal is to reach its pre-merger metric of 87%. This improvement signifies a healthier balance sheet, suggesting the bank is no longer over-extended and is well-positioned to lend aggressively in the new low-rate environment.

Unlocking Hidden Value: The Sum-of-the-Parts Advantage

Beyond the operational metrics, HDFC Bank currently benefits from a structural valuation support that the market may still be underappreciating.

In July 2025, the bank listed its subsidiary, HDB Financial Services, on the Indian public markets. Prior to this IPO, the value of this subsidiary was embedded within HDFC Bank but was difficult to quantify accurately. Now that HDB Financial Services is a publicly traded entity with its own market capitalization, it adds tangible, liquid value to the parent company’s books.

This creates a sum-of-the-parts argument. Investors buying HDFC Bank now acquire the core banking business, as well as the market value of its stake in the subsidiary. 

This event has effectively raised the floor for the stock price, offering a margin of safety for new entrants.

Strategic Diversification for 2026

The data presents a clear divergence. While Western markets navigate uncertainty, India offers a straightforward narrative of 6.7% growth and 1.33% inflation.

Of course, investing in emerging markets always carries risks, primarily regarding currency fluctuations. If the U.S. Dollar strengthens significantly, it can erode returns on foreign assets. However, the Reserve Bank of India’s accommodative policy, combined with the structural strength of HDFC Bank’s balance sheet, provides a buffer against these risks.

For investors seeking to diversify away from U.S. political headwinds, the combination of the broad INDA ETF and HDFC Bank's revitalized growth represents a compelling, data-backed opportunity for the year ahead.

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